Updated: Aug 22, 2022
Company Name – Happiest Minds Technologies Ltd (Happiest Minds)
Current Share Price – INR 826 (July 5, 2022)
Market Cap – INR 12,125 cr
1. What is interesting about the stock?
Digital transformation is the process of using digital technologies to create new — or modify existing — business processes, culture, and customer experiences to meet changing business and market requirements. This reimagining of business in the digital age is digital transformation. It transcends traditional roles like sales, marketing, and customer service. As they embark on digital transformation, many companies are taking a step back to ask whether they are really doing the right things. [Source: Salesforce]
Digital transformation is key for businesses to survive in today's world.
Company builds on the mission of the happiest people and the happiest customers to yield outstanding customer and people satisfaction results. Happiest Minds is an early adopter of new technologies and build state-of-the-art solutions for customers.
Happiest Minds Technologies Ltd is a technology service provider to clients focused on digital transformation. The company provides an end-to-end solution in the digital space. The company offers solutions across the spectrum of advanced digital technologies such as Robotic Process Automation (RPA), Software-Defined Networking/Network Function Virtualization (SDN/NFV), Big Data and advanced analytics, Internet of Things (IoT), Cloud, Business Process Management (BPM) and security.
Happiest Minds delivers services across industry sectors such as Retail, Edutech, Industrial, BFSI, Hi-Tech, Engineering R&D, Manufacturing, Travel, and Media & Entertainment.
Company focuses on - Born digital (~97% of its revenue). Born agile (~93% of its revenue).
Happiest Minds had 4,168 employees as of March 31, 2022, across 7 countries with 206 active clients (85% of repeat business). The offshore/onshore mix of employees is 96:4 and revenue is 86:14 in Q4FY22. The utilization rate was ~80% in Q4FY22. Company has seen the attrition level increase from 12.4% in FY21 to 22.7% in FY22 due to the demand for good engineering talent in the country.
Revenue mix of the Company is as follows:
Company is divided into business units:
Product Engineering Services (PES) - Product engineering services (PES) includes the engineering of next-generation products and platforms across software and hardware that powers digital evolution and provide end-to-end engineering services for developing high-quality, scalable, and secure products. Expected to grow at a CAGR of 11.3% from 2018-2025
Digital Business Services (DBS) - Digital business services are those that are able to create business value through the adoption of powerful digital and disruptive enablers such as mobile, analytics, social media, big data, and cloud to fuel topline growth, improve customer experiences, and foster a culture of innovation. Enterprise digital spending is expected to grow at a CAGR of 20.2% from 2018-2025
Infrastructure Management & Security Services (IMSS) - Provide end-to-end monitoring and management capabilities and continuous support and managed security services for mid-sized enterprises and technology companies. Its security offerings include cyber and infrastructure security, governance, risk & compliance, data privacy and security, identity and access management, and threat and vulnerability management. The Company’s infrastructure offerings include DC and hybrid Cloud services, workspace services, service automation (RPA, ITSM & ITOM), database and middleware services, and software-defined infrastructure services
Revenue split by Business Unit in FY22 was:
Management is working towards becoming a billion-dollar revenue company in 10 years with industry-leading profitability and capital return ratios. This would imply a CAGR growth of ~22% which could be achievable given their focus on digital services.
During the investor conference call, management has guided toward a sustainable EBITDA margin being between 22-24%.
Why invest in Happiest Minds?
Strong management background - Company is led by Ashok Soota as Executive Chairman. He was a founder of Mindtree and former Vice Chairman at Wipro. While he is involved in making the overall strategic direction, day-to-day operations are managed by Venkatraman N. (Managing Director and CFO) and three business unit heads
Capabilities in the Digital space
Partnerships with leading solution providers – Happiest Minds has developed unique IPs powered by platforms like Microsoft, AWS, SAP Hybris, Magento, and Google Cloud for various industries including retail, manufacturing, and banking.
2. Key Historical Financials
Revenue has grown at a CAGR of ~23% from FY19 to FY22 with EBITDA margin expanding from 9% in FY19 to 24% in FY22
Net profit grew by 12% in FY22 on a YoY basis which was lower than revenue growth (42%) as the company started paying full taxes on the expiry of carry-forward losses
ROCE/ROE is quite healthy at 32%/30% in FY22 – similar to other IT or ER&D companies
Company is expected to have strong cash flow in the future which could be used to pay dividends or grow inorganically
3. What is my view on company valuation?
Happiest Minds came out with its IPO in September 2020 at an issue price of INR 166. The share price has jumped ~10x in a year after the IPO and had subsequently corrected ~45% from its peak in September 2021.
Company currently trades at a P/E (TTM) multiple of 65x vs KPIT at 50x, LTTS at 33x, and Persistent Systems at 38x. The premium could be partly explained by the faster growth in revenue and profit. With relatively less room for increase in profitability margins, Happiest Minds could deliver earnings growth of 20-25% in the future. Most IT companies trade at a PEG ratio of 1.5x in long term, implying a P/E ratio of 30-37.5x for Happiest Minds.
So, the Company is overvalued at the current levels. However, it could be an excellent investment opportunity with a strong business and management team at the right entry price for long-term investors.
4. What are the risks to the investment analysis?
Risks to the analysis are:
High attrition rate could disrupt the business
Company doesn’t have experience in managing acquisition and related transitions
Stock price could remain elevated in the short-medium term due to digital being the new buzzword in the technology space
Case Study of their work in EdTech (example to understand the business)
Challenge: The client is in the business of offering exam preparation courses for the insurance industry. However, a change in the evaluation procedure that placed a higher emphasis on critical and analytical thinking in candidates led to a steep decline in the performance of students. The client was looking to arrest the resulting dropouts by putting in place a learner support system to automatically identify at-risk students and initiate remedial action.
Happiest Minds built a solution that analyzed the current student database and corroborated our findings with students who’d dropped out of the course.
Modelled the data using various classification models while factoring in model complexity and model accuracy.
Basis the chosen model, the team built a prediction engine that accurately classified at-risk students.
Built a visualization layer that could easily showcase trends pertaining to student performance and help instructors and administrators take corrective action.
About the Author
I have over 17 years of experience in venture capital, private equity and investment banking in India and Middle East across a wide variety of sectors. I was last working with Majid Al Futtaim Holding (MAF), a leading conglomerate in Middle East, to look after investments, M&A and venture capital. I have prior experience in India with Tata Capital (Private Equity), Merrill Lynch (Investment Banking or IB) and Ambit Corporate Finance (IB). I bring the long-term ownership mindset to the analysis.
I graduated from the MBA program of the Indian Institute of Management Lucknow (2005) after completing the Bachelor of Technology program at the Indian Institute of Technology, Kharagpur (2002).
I am an Insignificant Investor in the public market and co-founder of SocInvest.
I have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned since last 30 days, and shall not initiate any such positions within the next 5 days. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from SocInvest). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
I am not a SEBI registered advisor. This article is purely for educational purpose and not to be construed as an investment advice. Please consult your financial advisor before acting on it.
I have used publicly available information while writing this article.